Office for Budget Responsibility

business leader for cypher duty smirch for Budget businessThe Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is an executive non-departmental public body of HM exchequer.i It was established in 2010 to provide independent and authoritative analysis on the sustainability of the UKs public finance.ii The Office was placed on a statutory footing through the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011. This statutory redress grants OBR enough access to all Government information relevant to its analysis together with the exchequers macroeconomic, forecasting and analytical models.iii George Osbornes intention was to desex public faith in official economic and fiscal forecasting when a run of persistently overoptimistic projections for public borrowing under previous organizations has undermined the Treasurys credibility.ivContentsStructureMain ResponsibilitiesRelationship with UK GovernmentCriticism and ControversiesFuture of OBRFurther ReadingReferencesStructureThe Office consists of a Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC), an Oversight Board, an Advisory Panel of economic and fiscal experts, and 18 permanent civil servants. The BRC is chaired by Robert Chote and include Steve Nickell CBE and Graham Parker CBE. They carry out the bosom functions within the office and have full discretion over the scope and nature of its judgements on the forecasts. v OBRs Oversight Board saw the inclusion of twain non-executive members into office. They monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of OBRs operational and governance arrangements.viMain ResponsibilitiesThe 4 main tasks outlined in the Parliamentary LegislationTo publish at least two five-year fiscal and economic forecasts each year which includes the likely impact of any tax and spending measures announced by the Chancellor. (Economic and Fiscal Outlook)To assess whether the Government is on course to meeting the fiscal targets that it has set itself and the possible risks that may be involved. (Economic and Fisc al Outlook)To scrutinize and comment publicly on the Treasurys costing of tax and welfare spending measures. (Forecast Evaluation Report)To analysis and report on the health of the public sectors balance poll and the long term sustainability of the public finances on existing policiesvii (Fiscal Sustainability Report)It differs from other economic forecasters and agencies, because the OBR is more focused on using variables such as titulary GDP and its component in explaining public financesviii and it provides ex-ante projections rather than ex-post audits of expenditure. ixRelationship with UK GovernmentA Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) establishes a transparent framework for cooperation between the OBR and HM Treasury, the Department of Work and Pensions and HM Revenue and Customs.x It sets out the working relationship between each body based on three guiding principles of office and transparency, effective co-ordination and regular information exchange.xi This memorandum, ho wever, does not constitute a legally binding agreementxii. The OBR is funded via Grant-in-Aid from HM Treasurys supply estimate, which is subject to Parliamentary control. The OBR concord a four year, flat cash funding allocation of 1.75 million per year with the Treasury during the 2010 Spending Review.xiiiCriticism and ControversiesDespite the OBRs stance of full transparency around its analysis and projectionsxiv, some have questioned its credibility. When the OBR got embroiled in a complicated row well-nigh government employment forecasts, it raised doubts about just how independent it really was.xv The creation of the OBR was seen as a modest institutional change since control over fiscal policy remains securely in the hands of the Chancellor.xviThe credibility of the OBR regarding its accuracy have also been under attack constantly. When the OBR admitted that its forecast on the economys size in 2015 was out by 65billionxvii, Treasury Select Committee member Jesse Norman com mented on the illusion of technocratic expertise in the OBR and predictions often involve a in truth high level of guesswork.xviii Former Monetary Policy Committee member David Blanchflower have also criticized the OBRs growth forecasts in the 2012 Budget submission, to be too widely optimistic and citing that the OBR have frequently needed to revise downwards from its initial forecast.xix The OBRs assessment over the estimated policy impact has also, in some instances, undermined currently enacting policies such as those relating to immigration in UK.xxFuture of OBROBR has played an increasingly important role in assessing the Governments public presentation in other areas. OBR is undertaking additional responsibilities related to the welfare gap, assessing and opining on governments performance against the cap and whether the relevant spending is forecast to stoppage within the cap.xxiIn December 2013, Current Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls announced his belief that OBR should play an important role, not just for the current government but for prospective governments.xxii He proposed the OBR to take up the role of assessing wears tax and spend policies before the next General Election in 2015. xxiii The role of the OBR has increasingly been compared with similar independent fiscal institutions such as the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO).xxiv Colin Talbot, Chair of humans Policy and attention at University of Manchester, believes that by undertaking this additional role, it will potentially make financial debates during elections more factual based. xxv Andrew Tyrie, Chairman of the Treasury Select Committee, added that it will upraise the quality of debate on tax and spend.xxvi Former Number 10 Policy Unit special adviser Dan Corry, similarly, argues that getting the OBR to cost Labours policies ahead of the election would be a step forward for UK democracy.xxvii But this will require a change in the governing withdraw of Budget Responsibility. xxvii i However, some people have denounced this proposal stating the fear that OBR may end up being abused and used as a semipolitical tool.Word Count 879 (Excluding Further Readings and References)Further ReadingsList of other similar fiscal watchdogsSwedish Fiscal Council Report 2013The role of Australias Parliamentary Budget OfficeThe Worlds Oldest Fiscal Watchdog Netherlands Bureau for Economic AnalysisCase Studies of Fiscal Councils Functions and ImpactOther areas which has required OBR expertise4G spectrum auction bridgeUK Swiss tax agreementAnti-avoidance measuresReferencesi https//www.gov.uk/government/organisations/office-for-budget-responsibility. Retrieved 22 Februaryii Official Office for Budget Responsibility Websiteiii Memorandum of Understanding between Office for Budget Responsibility, HM Treasury, Department for Work and Pensions and HM Revenue Customs, April 2011iv The new forecaster in chief, The Economist, 9 folk 2010. Retrieved 22 February 2014v Examination of t he forecasts prepared by the interim Office for Budget Responsibility for the emergency Budget 2010, 22 June 2010. Retrieved 22 February 2014vi Office for Budget Responsibilitys Annual report and accounts 2011-2012, 19 June 2012vii Memorandum of Understanding, April 2011viii Office for Budget Responsibilitys Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2012ix Independent Fiscal Institutions Developing Good Practices by George Kopitsx Memorandum of Understanding, April 2011xi Memorandum of Understanding, April 2011xii Memorandum of Understanding, April 2011xiii letter from Robert Chote to Lord Myners Re Costs and staff arrangements at the Office for Budget Responsibility, October 2011xiv Office for Budget Responsibilitys Annual report and accounts 2011-2012, 19 June 2012xv The new forecaster in chief, The Economist, 9 September 2010. Retrieved 22 February 2014xvi The new forecaster in chief, The Economist, 9 September 2010. Retrieved 22 February 2014xvii Wintour, Patrick (6 December 2011), OBR attacked by MPs over economic forecasts. Guardian (UK). Retrieved 22 Februaryxviii Wintour, Patrick (6 December 2011), OBR attacked by MPs over economic forecasts. Guardian (UK). Retrieved 22 Februaryxix Blanchflower, David (22 March 2012), David Blanchflower The OBRs credibility is in tatters. The Independent (UK). Retrieved 22 Februaryxx Kirkup, James (14 January 2014), Immigration has a positive impact, says Office for Budget Responsibility head. The Daily Telegraph, Retrieved 22 Februaryxxi Letter from George Osborne to Robert Chote, 3 December 2013xxii Letter from Ed Balls to Robert Chote, 22 September 2013xxiii Johnstone, Richard (23 September 2013), Labour proposes OBR scrutiny of spending plans, Public Finance, Retrieved 22 Februaryxxiv Von Trapp, Lisa (7 June 2011), The Role of Independent Fiscal Institutions, Budgeting and Public Expenditures Organization for Economic Cooperation and Developmentxxv Talbot, Colin (24 September 2013), Balls, Budget and OBR-plus, Public Fina nce, Retrieved 22 Februaryxxvi Watt, Nicholas (15 October 2013), Andrew Tyrie confirms support of Ed Balls plan for monitoring spending, Guardian (UK). Retrieved 22 Februaryxxvii Corry, Dan (26 September 2013), OBR audit dont expect miracles, Public Finance, Retrieved 22 Februaryxxviii Letter from Robert to Ed Balls, 23rd September 2013